Calibration explorer

Does the model know what it doesn’t know?

Accuracy alone doesn’t tell you whether a model knows the limits of its own knowledge. This page checks whether each model’s stated confidence actually predicts how often it’s right — the property that matters most before trusting AI output on a real regulatory decision.

Does the model know what it doesn’t know?

For each self-reported confidence level, we plot the model’s actual accuracy. Points on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated; points below it mean the model was overconfident.

Actual accuracy

Number of questions

Expected Calibration Error (ECE):

Weighted average gap between confidence and accuracy across bins — lower is better.

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Leaderboard

Accuracy by model

Point estimate with 90% confidence interval, sorted from highest to lowest accuracy.

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Performance over time

Tracking model performance as new versions and benchmarks arrive

Each point is one model’s accuracy on the day we tested it.

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